2012-12-01
2012-12-31
x russia

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CNBC 2
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MSNBCW 1
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is controlled by the opec cartel, the organization of petroleum exporting countries, which meets twice a year to establish quotas in order to keep prices at an acceptable level for the opec exporters. the national oil companies of opec and other countries around the world hold the vast majority of oil reserves, over 80%. they produce only 40% of the world's petroleum every day. there's a chart in the report that you have that shows us graphically. if there's ever an example of a market that is not free, it is that. nobody operates and acts in that manner in a purely free market. in fact, if opec were doing what it does abroad in this country, it would be a crime and a violation of our antitrust laws. so the prescription that the energy security leadership council came up with several years ago, which was very impactful in the energy security -- independence and security act of 2007, was it? 2008? was based on our report in 2007, which said that the united states should maximize its oil and gas production, that it should significantly reduce consumption and improve conservation, which led to t

is the supply side. at the moment, really we've got to see what opec wants to do. last year, the impact of the embargo wasn't -- was like a six week impact and it was forgotten about very quickly. and if you think about it, last year was a very, very steady year for oil prices. wti, as you said, is going to post the lowest rise in several years. in fact, i looked back in my forecast that i had for wti at the beginning of 2012. and it was $111 $a barrel. i moved it down to $110 in the middle of the year thinking it might get a little weaker and poked around and did absolutely nothing. >> i wonder whether the question is going to come back again into the oil markets given that we're looking at the israeli elections coming up in january. but back to the u.s. story, i find it hugely interesting, this notion of u.s. becoming energy independent on its own. do you really think it will happen? because i still talk to a couple of people in the oim and gas industry that say, you know what? it's a far cry from the reality out there. we're still going to see the middle east being the dominating oi

supply among a number of non-opec countries. you see the u.s. obliterating the rest of the world. employment des moinin oil and gd to the highest level in 1992. we still provide a tiny sliver just under 200,000. the net oil imports are craters and a now a number of analysts predict in the near future the u.s. is producing more oil than any other country in the world. by round 2020 a recent international agency reports that the u.s. is predicted to become the largest oil producer and starts to see the impact of new fuel efficiency measures and transport. it results in a continued fall in u.s. imports to the extend that north america is a net oil exporter around 2030. yes, that's right. the united states, which is according to the spokes people from the coal industry already the saudi arabia of coal, which is now essentially tied with russia as the single largest producer of natural gas in the world could find itself the world's biggest oil producer on a consistent basis for the first time since the first half of the 20th century. in energy circles you hear the phrase saudi america

. the opec nations, what they're doing to us is incredible. and i look at what's going on and all we do is just kick the ball down the road, keep going along. i'd rather go over the cliff and make the big deal. don't forget, we have a very important moment coming up in about a month and that's the debt ceiling. and for those people that don't get it, that think the republicans have no cards, and unfortunately, you know, i'm a republican and i can tell you we have lots of cards. the republican negotiators have lots of cards because we have the debt ceiling coming up. >> juliet: i actually sort of wanted to segueway into that. you mentioned leadership on both sides of the aisle questioning the strength of the leadership. lindsey graham was on fox news yesterday and he said a couple things that were interesting. and one thing, he used the term, the president won. you elaborate more, and you can't take it out of context. what's the feelings about how the republicans have, and since you are a republican, how they have a.c.t.ed and negotiated throughout the course of this entire drama? >> i s

pointing going into 1q, the reason, it sort of rhymes in the spirit of the season. you have non-opec demand growing, global demand slowing, it's not snowing, and down is where we're going. the next big data point is probably the iaea report in february. and if that implicates more progress toward an iranian bomb, there's significant risk to look to the upside. in the meantime, you have a lot of other issues beyond the fiscal cliff. debt ceiling issues, if not resolved in the negotiation looming. and relatively long stocks here in the u.s. perhaps the most interesting part, becky, is to look at the convergence between light and heavy grades here in north america. we have a lot of light oil. and we're actually potentially short of heavy oil. so seeing convergence within that downward trend means there could be a bid for heavier. >> you would guess that would certainly hurt demand. >> sure. offsetting weakness in the dollar would lift the crude price based on historical trends, of course. yeah, it would be a significant blow, and when we're looking at 370 plus barrels of commercial inventories

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